Democrats won control of Congress in the midterm elections, a result analysts attribute to multiple factors.
Inflation drove voter anger across the country. Prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, with diesel prices near record highs. Nearly 80% of voters said inflation caused severe or moderate hardship to their families. More than 60% blamed Trump's policies for the price increases.
The war with Iran proved broadly unpopular. The US and Israel launched military action in February, and Iran's retaliation closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas passage. About 63% of voters polled said the US made the wrong decision. Three-quarters said the conflict was a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote. Trump conceded the war played a role in the defeat but told Fox News he had no choice to stop Iran's nuclear program.
Strong Democratic candidates won in traditionally Republican areas. They focused disciplined messages on cost of living and healthcare access. A former teacher, pastor, pediatrician and public health official won races in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina and Michigan respectively. Even Trump told Fox News Democrats "did a good job."
Trump's focus on himself rather than voter concerns may have backfired. His approval ratings fell even among Republicans. In his final campaign speech on Monday in Washington DC, he discussed at length his renovation of the Reflecting Pool rather than addressing prices. Polling showed many Americans wanted him to focus on cost concerns.
Hispanic and Black voters shifted toward Democrats. Democrats won all three House races in Hispanic congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border. Majority-Hispanic counties moved more than 22 percentage points against Republican Senate candidates compared with the 2024 presidential election, according to a New York Times analysis. Black-majority counties also shifted significantly toward Democratic Senate candidates.